Michael Phelps

[raf]

11 Gold Medals in the Olympics, with another possible 3 for him to win and to think he's only 23. How many more can he win after this?

[Bundes]

Hard to say. He will be 27 by the time the Olympics take place again, in London 2012. Certainly, this one is his last shot at swimming this many events. At 27, he will have to focus on 2 to 4 events -- maybe, just maybe, he could go 5, since Phelps is indeed way above average (providing he will be in top form 4 years from now, that is).

So he could win 2 to 5 more gold medals in 2012, but as far as breaking Mark Spitz's record, it's make it or break it for him now.

That being the case, he should kiss Jason Lezak's ring for that uncanny anchor leg at the 4x100 freestyle relay.

[krism2k4]

dude is a machine. its absolutely amazing the clinic he's putting on.

[bummy12]

Quite reasonable to think that he could win 20.

14 after these games and then 6 in the London Olympics of 2012. It all depends on staying healthy and if he wants to carry on sacrificing.

[Bundes]

Originally Posted by bummy12

Quite reasonable to think that he could win 20.

14 after these games and then 6 in the London Olympics of 2012. It all depends on staying healthy and if he wants to carry on sacrificing.

He will not win 6 gold medals at London 2012. He could go "crazy" and be in 6 events (assuming he can qualify in the US trials), but if he does that at 27, and at the Olympics, he runs the risk of losing every single individual event. Realistically speaking, he could be in as many as 4 (maybe, but unlikely, in 5) and perhaps win half, or 2/3. Ergo, somewhere between 2 to 4 medals -- 2 or 3 gold medals in 2012 would be a more realistic prediction.

All of that is assuming that he won't retire before the Olympics, that he will not pull a "Ian Thorpe" and decide that he has "already achieved all that [he wanted to] achieve". It will all depend on his motivation: expand his overall gold medal count and break another record: Larissa Latynina's (gymnastics) record of 18 olympic medals. That record takes into account any type of medal, and not just gold. That means that, regardless of whether or not he wins all 8 in Beijing, if he just medals in all 8, which is pretty much a given, he will end the 2008 Games at 16 medals (6 gold, 2 bronze from Athens and 8 medals from Beijing). That means just 2 medals (of any kind) away from Latynina's record. In London, he would need 2 medals (of any kind) to tie the record and 3 to break it. And 3 medals, especially if they don't [all] need to be gold, is a very realistic prediction for him in 2012.

Will any of that suffice to keep him motivated? Nobody knows.

[Bundes]

First hand (me thinks): Phelps is going to be on the cover of the next Sports Illustrated issue, posing with the 8 gold medals. Here's the cover (LQ).

[hobozombie]

I'm going to go along with the hype and call him the Best Ever.

[65Mustangs]

I admire his abilities as an athlete, but I must admit I'm getting tired of seeing him on just about every other commercial. It seems he has three of four different products he's posing for now...