Fantasy Football News 2008 - Top 5 Draft Picks

[PhilipSaar]

Fantasy Football News 2008 - Top 5 Draft Picks
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Only for the Addicts
For the Fantasy Football Addict. While most owners hibernate or turn to baseball, the junkies turn to the Scouting Combine and Free Agency. Or they participate in a Mock Draft the day after the Super Bowl.

The results below are more entertaining than instructive. With free agency and the NFL Draft ready to shake up fantasy value, this draft is like a presidential poll taken six months before the first primary. Let's take a look.


Round One

1.01. "Smitty", Fantasy Football Extreme – Adrian Peterson
1.02 – Football Diehards – LaDainian Tomlinson
1.03 – Brad Evans, Yahoo Sports – Brian Westbrook
1.04 – The FootballExpert.com – Joseph Addai
1.05 – Jamey Eisenberg, CBSSportsline – Tom Brady
1.06 – Rotoworld – Steven Jackson
1.07 – Andy Behrens, Yahoo Sports– Larry Johnson
1.08 – JunkyardJake.com – Peyton Manning
1.09 – Russ Bliss, FantasyFootballStarters.com – Frank Gore
1.10 – Dave Richard, CBS Sportsline – Clinton Portis
1.11 – Dan Labert, Fantasy Tailgate.com – Willis McGahee
1.12 – Adam Lasik, FantasyWhiz.com – Ryan Grant

My pick: Jackson was a no-brainer at that stage. Anyone in that slot makes the same pick.

It's early, but I see a big drop-off after the top five running backs. I'm debating whether Jackson should be ahead of Adrian Peterson for the number two slot next year. Once he returned from injury in the second half of the year, he played as expected. minnesotavikings.com

Shadiest Pick: Larry Johnson – I'd rather not take a quarterback so high, but those picks won't kill you. I'm not optimistic Kansas City is going to turn their offense or offensive line around. I don't see LJ as a first-round pick. kansascitychiefs.com

Trends, Etc: With Peterson off the board first, I knew it was a new year. Don't expect that to happen often, but the reasoning is understandable. He's a bigger boom-or-bust than the rest of the top five, but his "boom" could include league records. You are buying a lottery ticket, but I'd rather go safe in round one. It would help Peterson out greatly if Chester Taylor was dealt, but that isn't likely to happen.

Brady's big year is going to push him into the first round, but the over/under on his touchdowns next season is closer to 30 than 50. With solid, unspectacular backs like Portis and McGahee in the first round, I can't kill taking a sure thing quarterback. washingtonredskins.com

I would expect Gore to fall further in most drafts after his down year. Maybe that's wishful thinking on my part. … Ryan Grant is locked in to the Packers starting job, so he deserves to go this high. greenbaypackers.com

Round Two

2.01. Marshawn Lynch
2.02. Reggie Bush
2.03. Willie Parker
2.04. Marion Barber
2.05. Larry Fitzgerald
2.06. Randy Moss
2.07. Rotoworld - Terrell Owens
2.08. Earnest Graham
2.09. Jamal Lewis
2.10. Brandon Jacobs
2.11. Reggie Wayne
2.12. Ronnie Brown

Best Value: Randy Moss – The odds are heavily weighted towards him staying in New England and finding a way to score 15 more times.

Shadiest Pick: Reggie Bush – Even if Deuce McAllister doesn't return 100%, the Saints have Pierre Thomas behind Bush and should bring back Aaron Stecker. Bush hasn't shown he can handle the load. He's not going to hit 250 carries and this also isn't a PPR league.

Trends, Etc: Marshawn Lynch needs some help from his teammates, but he should be one of the safest fantasy picks in the league. … Barber has been worth this draft slot the last few years because of his scores. With Julius Jones leaving, Barber may wind up getting taken in the first round by August. It depends on whom the Cowboys wind up pairing him with. buffalobills.com

Earnest Graham is an interesting case. He deserves to carry the load in Tampa, but I'm not sure he'll get the chance. Even if Cadillac Williams doesn't make it back, look for Jon Gruden to add a quality back to the mix. … Ronnie Brown's ACL tear didn't hurt his stock as much as one would expect. Same goes for Ahmad Bradshaw's emergence and Brandon Jacobs' stock. Either way, the sure-thing running backs are gone at this point. NY Giants

Round Three

3.01. Michael Turner
3.02. Andre Johnson
3.03. Braylon Edwards
3.04. T.J. Houshmandezadeh
3.05. Maurice Jones-Drew
3.06. Rotoworld - Chad Johnson
3.07. Darren McFadden
3.08. Steve Smith
3.09. Plaxico Burress
3.10. Marques Colston
3.11. Torry Holt
3.12. Wes Welker

My Pick: I was set to take Mo-Jo as my RB2, but saw a big drop-off at running back after that. It wasn't worth reaching for my next name. Considering Ocho Cinco set his career high in yards in 2007, I'm not worried about his production or any trade rumors. He's stuck in Cincy whether he likes it or not. indianapoliscolts.com

Best value: Jones-Drew was frustrating to own in 2007, but Fred Taylor is another year older and less likely to repeat his performance. Mo-Jo is a solid third round back because he'll score. jacksonvillejaguars.com

Trends, Etc: There were a few signs in this round how this draft was a fun exercise, but shouldn't be taken too seriously. I didn't even realize we were allowed to take impending rookies. Giving them a draft slot before knowing their NFL team is just guesswork, but McFadden will be worth their draft slot.

The same goes for taking Michael Turner. I agree Turner will be worth this spot as a starter, if not higher, and he'll probably get in a favorable situation with plenty of backfields undecided around the league. sandiegochargers.com

It was interesting to see Johnson go after teammate Houshmandzadeh for the first time in memory. Old favorites Steve Smith and Torry Holt got sent down a round because of some slowdown in their performance. Smith especially had a good excuse and could be a good value next year. carolinapanthers.com



Round Four

4.01. Rudi Johnson
4.02. Roy Williams
4.03. Greg Jennings
4.04. Laurence Maroney
4.05. LenDale White
4.06. Brandon Marshall
4.07. Rotoworld- Anquan Boldin
4.08. Kellen Winslow
4.09. Tony Romo
4.10. Antonio Gates
4.11. Jason Witten
4.12. Carson Palmer

My pick: Yep, that's three straight receivers for my team. After White and Maroney were off the board, I knew I'd build my team to be strong at every position but RB2. The backs available a few rounds from now weren't going to be much worse. I wound up with Thomas Jones, Justin Fargas, and Felix Jones in rounds 6-8 as my next three running backs. oaklandraiders.com

I considered taking Palmer or Romo, but was hoping one of them or Drew Brees fell to me in round five. Brees made it.

Best Value: Laurence Maroney – It's very early, but Maroney and LenDale White are going to be Rotoworld favorites if they slip this far. They are talented young starting running backs coming off mediocre years, which is a recipe for value. tennesseetitans.com

White will be the rare back with an over/under of 325 carries. Maroney matured late in the year with four 100-yard games and seven touchdowns in his last seven contests, including the playoffs.

Shadiest Pick: Rudi Johnson – The first pick of the draft that made me say goo. I'd put Rudi behind Shaun Alexander and Edgerrin James as a veteran back in steep decline, and they didn't go for a while. I'd be surprised if Johnson starts in Week 1 next year. arizonacardinals.com

Trends, Etc: Solid round of picks! With the top of the tight ends so bunched up, no one wanted to take one first. That leads to nice value for Gates here. Palmer and Romo also come at a great price considering Brady and Manning went in round one. I may have been greedy waiting to take a quarterback. I will probably have Palmer third in the rankings when the time comes.

Greg Jennings and Brandon Marshall have forced themselves close to the top tier of receivers with breakout years.

Round Five

5.01. Santonio Holmes
5.02. DeAngelo Williams
5.03. Roddy White
5.04. Tony Gonzalez
5.05. Hines Ward
5.06. Rotoworld - Drew Brees
5.07. Rashard Mendenhall
5.08. Jonathan Stewart
5.09. Matt Hasselbeck
5.10. Travis Henry
5.11. Shaun Alexander
5.12. Laveranues Coles

My Pick: Honestly, I spaced about the pre-rookie backs; good thing it's February. Most likely, they will wind up with ADPs higher than the fifth-round. Taking Brees was easy because I saw a big tier drop after him at quarterback, and I knew the generic veteran runners would stick around.

Trends, Etc.: No picks in this round were too out of place, although Shaun Alexander may be a backup in a month. … Travis Henry wants to stay in Denver, but it's uncertain if the Broncos truly want to keep him. … Laveranues Coles went a few rounds ahead of Jerricho Cotchery despite an injury-plagued year. … DeAngelo Williams has a good chance to carry the load in Carolina next year, but we said that in February last year. … Santonio Holmes is the best wideout pick of the round. Roddy White just needs to find out who is quarterback is.